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Aria Bendix
Updated
2020-02-27T21:16:00Z
- No city is entirely safe from natural disasters, but a some are better positioned to avoid them than others.
- We asked 12 climate scientists where they would consider living to avoid climate change.
- Cities like Portland, Tulsa, and Minneapolis ranked among the preferred locations.
- Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.
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United Nations scientists predict that we haveonly a decade left to avoid the worst effects of climate change — sweltering heatwaves, violent hurricanes, and larger, more frequent wildfires.
Climate change is already be impacting where people in the US choose to move. A 2017 study found that American homes that are vulnerable to rising seas sell for around 7% less than similar unexposed properties— even though the damage could be decades away.
To figure out what areas are least vulnerable to natural disasters in the future, we asked 12 climate scientists where they would consider living to avoid climate change. All were quick to note that no area is entirely safe, but a few cities could be less vulnerable than the rest.
Here are the cities they said are the least vulnerable to disaster.
Tulsa, Oklahoma is not threatened by sea-level rise.
Cities like Miami are likely to see flooding become more intense and frequent, Richard Alley, a climate science professor at Pennsylvania State University, told Business Insider. Ifthe West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapses rapidly, he said, global sea levels could increase by 4 to 5 meters in the next 100 years.
Tulsa, Oklahoma, however, is not vulnerable to that threat. In addition to its locational advantage, Tulsa has gone to great lengths to protect itself from flooding. Following a devastating storm in 1984, the city installed a number of detention ponds, which retain water in the wake of a storm. Tulsa also paid to either transport or destroy around 1,000 homes that had been damaged. As a result, its flood-insurance rates went from the highest in the nation to among the lowest.
Hartford, Connecticut is also not vulnerable to sea-level rise.
In a 2016 study, climate sociologist Mathew Hauer pinpointed the US cities that had the most residents likely to be affected by 6 feet of sea-level rise by 2100.
"When we first started working on that project, 6 feet was considered the highest high by the end of the century," Hauer told Business Insider. "Now it's 10 feet."
His study predicted that cities like Miami and New Orleans would see "catastrophic impacts."
"When you start tacking on storm surges, tidal flooding, all those other associated events, the numbers get much larger," Hauer said.
Hartford, Connecticut, however, is relatively safe thanks to its inland location and small population size (around 124,000 people).
Even if Boulder, Colorado gets hit by a major drought in the next 10 years, the city won't run out of water.
Two of the top criteria for avoiding the threat of sea-level rise are high elevation and a location in the middle of the country, Camilo Mora, an associate professor at the University of Hawaii, told Business Insider. To avoid environmental disasters, Mora said, people should look for places where they can live self-sufficiently, with an independent agricultural system and a body of water that doesn't depend on melting ice.
While Mora didn't identify a single city that best meets these criteria, Boulder, Colorado, fits the bill. It's far from the coast and has an altitude of more than 5,300 feet.
Boulder has also carefully monitored its water usage to account for changes in weather. Even if the city expands, officials have found, it will own enough water rights to meet residents' demands through 2030.
San Diego, California has the best all-around weather compared to other major cities.
San Diego may be exposed to rising seas, but its coastal location gives it a host of other advantages. According to research from Sarah Kapnick, a climate scientist at Princeton University, San Diego may have the most ideal weather of any US city.
Kapnick studied "mild weather" days in the US — those suited for outdoor activities, with low precipitation, low humidity, and temperatures between 64 and 86 degrees Fahrenheit — and found that summers are becoming hotter and more humid. By the end of the century, she discovered, cities in West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, and New Mexico could lose weeks of mild weather due to climate change.
This wasn't the case in San Diego, however, which currently boasts 180 days of mild weather per year. By comparison, Los Angeles gets 157, New York has 83, and Boston sees just 76.
In the future, San Diego could see even better weather: Kapnick's study predicts the city will gain three mild days per year by the end of the century. A concern for San Diego, however, is the loss of precipitation, which can raise the risk of drought and wildfire. Those are threats that nearly all California cities face.
Sacramento, California may be vulnerable to wildfires, but it could still be one of the safest places to avoid the cumulative effects of natural disasters.
According to Vivek Shandas, an urban-planning professor at Portland State University, Sacramento ranks among the cities that are least vulnerable to the cumulative effects of hurricanes, sea level rise, tornadoes, flooding, droughts, landslides, and wildfires.
The city is less than two hours outside San Francisco and is developing strategiesto preparefor the effects of climate change.
Michael Anderson, the state climatologist at California's Department of Water Resources, said some northern California cities are less vulnerable to extreme heat, too.
"Just by latitude, you're in a cooler climate," he said. "You have the marine layer — colder waters coming down from the north that modulate the temperature."
Minnesota's twin cities of Minneapolis and Saint Paul are relatively sheltered from hurricanes and floods.
Minneapolis may be known for its harsh winters, but the city is not likely to get much colder than it is already, according to David Robinson, New Jersey's state climatologist and a professor at Rutgers University.
Robinson said Minneapolis could be ideal for those looking to avoid the harshest effects of climate change.
While Minneapolis may be susceptible to droughts and thunderstorms, its northern, inland location makes it less vulnerable to hurricanes and flooding. Hurricanes are among the most destructive natural disasters; in the US they primarily threaten those along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic seaboard.
Robinson also said summers in Minneapolis probably won't get as persistently hot as in other cities.
The inland location of Charlotte, North Carolina makes it less vulnerable to hurricanes.
While North Carolina has suffered through its fair share of hurricanes, Louisiana state climatologistBarry Keim said Charlotte is the least vulnerable city when it comes to the overall effects of climate change.
It's far enough inland to avoid the worst of the Atlantic hurricane season, which could get more severe as the climate continues to change. The city's climate is also mild, with a mean annual temperature of around 60 degrees Fahrenheit. While most cities are getting hotter as a result of climate change, Charlotte has actually begun to cool downover time.
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania could experience less extreme cold in the future.
The fact that the Midwest has seen seen its population decline in recent decades is "somewhat ironic," John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas state climatologist and a professor at Texas A&M University, told Business Insider.
"Not only will the Midwest avoid many of the bad effects of climate change, it will experience most of the good effects: less extreme cold and a longer growing season," Nielsen-Gammon said.
One city in particular that stands to benefit is Pittsburgh, which Nielsen-Gammon said is "safe from hurricanes" and unlikely to experience drought. In 2018, the Pittsburgh City Council approved an ambitious new climate plantoreduce carbon emissions.
Portland, Oregon could become a refuge for climate migrants.
For those unwilling to give up on a coast, Portland may be ideal. Compared to other coastal states, Oregon faces less property at risk because of sea-level rise and less physical area exposed, Kristy Dahl, a climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, told Business Insider.
It's also less vulnerable to hurricanes compared to cities along the East and Gulf Coasts, according to Astrid Caldas, a senior climate scientist at UCS.
He travels to dozens of cities each year, Shandas said, but few rival Portland's ability to withstand major climate events. A 2011 report from Portland State University echoed that— it predicted that the Willamette Valley would become a refuge for people looking to escape the harsh effects of climate change.
In 1993, Portland became the firstUS city to devise a plan for cutting carbon, vowing to reduce local carbon emissions by 80% by 2050. The city is also a recipient of theC40 Cities award, which recognizes the world's most inspiring and innovative cities tackling climate change.
Unfortunately, Hawaii is expected to see more frequent and intense tropical storms, so scientists don't recommend living there.
Hiro Murakami, an associate research scholar at Princeton who studies hurricane and cyclone forecasting, said it's far easier to predict which cities are vulnerable to these natural disasters than name specific places that will be immune to them.
Murakami warned that people should not move to the Hawaiian Islands. In a 2013 study, he predicted that Hawaii's tropical storm frequency would double by the next century.
But Caldas said there's no one-size-fits-all recommendation when it comes to minimizing climate risk.
"One may move away from the coast, only to find that inland floods are a problem. One may move from the south seeking cooler climates only to be hit by extreme precipitation, or drought, or wildfires," she said. "Each person or community needs to weigh all the factors carefully and choose their level of risk-taking."
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FAQs
Where is the best place to live in the US to avoid natural disasters? ›
In 2021, U.S. News and World Report analyzed resiliency data from the Environmental Protection Agency and found that the top five most climate-resilient cities in the U.S. were Anchorage, Alaska; Honolulu; Spokane, Washington; Eugene, Oregon; and Santa Barbara, California.
How many scientists actually agree on climate change? ›Yes, the vast majority of actively publishing climate scientists – 97 percent – agree that humans are causing global warming and climate change.
Where can we live to avoid climate change? ›- Seattle, Washington. Like San Francisco, Seattle doesn't expect to see a drastic increase in days with extreme heat or high heat and humidity. ...
- Columbus, Ohio. ...
- Minneapolis, Minnesota. ...
- Baltimore, Maryland. ...
- Portland, Oregon. ...
- Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. ...
- Richmond, Virginia. ...
- Houston, Texas.
Climate change hazards like extreme heat, drought, wildfires, inland flooding, and coastal flooding are expected to impact millions of Americans by 2050. Vermont is the best state to move to avoid climate change. At-risk homeowners can minimize threats and save money by future-proofing their homes.
Where is the best country to avoid natural disasters? ›| Rank | Country | 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andorra | 0.26% |
| 1 | Monaco | 0.26% |
| 2 | San Marino | 0.38% |
| 3 | São Tomé and Príncipe | 0.48% |
Monaco and Andora are the countries least affected by natural disasters according to a 2022 study. That year, these countries had a disaster risk index (WRI) of 0.26, due to low exposure and susceptibility to disasters.
Why do scientists disagree about global warming? ›The authors point to four reasons why scientists disagree about global warming: a conflict among scientists in different and often competing disciplines; fundamental scientific uncertainties concerning how the global climate responds to the human presence; failure of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on ...
What is the conclusion of climate change? ›In conclusion, climate change is the most significant problem facing the world. Global warming is increasing day by day. If we cannot prevent it as soon as possible, our world will face undesirable consequences.
What is the truth about climate change? ›Climate change is real and human-made, and there is overwhelming scientific consensus that this is true. Human-produced pollution is the main cause of climate change and this will become much more dangerous in the future if we do not act.
Where will be the safest place to live in 2050? ›A new book examining the forces shaping the future of global migration forecasts Michigan as the best place in the world to live in 2050. How can the world collaborate to minimize temperature rise to save as many lives as possible?
What is the best state to live in weather wise? ›
Based on these criteria, California has the best weather in all 50 states. Coastal cities in south and central California, such as San Diego, Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Santa Barbara, experience only 20 inches of rain per year and temperatures typically between the low 60s and 85 degrees.
What are the best states to live in during climate change? ›Each state was ranked based on five environmental factors. These were Carbon Emissions, the Adoption of Green Technology, Landfill Usage, Recycling and Green Policies. Overall, the top five best states concerning climate resilience are California, Maine, New York, Vermont and Massachusetts.
Where will be the best place to live after climate change? ›A paper published by the Anglia Ruskin University in the United Kingdom has identified five countries in geographical locations with “favourable starting conditions” that may allow them to be less touched by the effects of climate change: New Zealand, Iceland, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Ireland.
What city is most at risk from climate change USA? ›Among the metro areas that are the worst off are San Francisco, California; Cape Coral, Florida; New York City, New York; Long Island, New York; Oakland, California; and Phoenix, Arizona, the report found.
Where is the most stable climate in the US? ›Many coastal cities in southern and central California like San Diego and Santa Barbara have warm weather between 60 and 85 degrees with little rainfall, making California the state with the best weather! Where is it 70 degrees year-round in the U.S.?
Where is the safest place in the world right now? ›| # | Country | Global Peace Index (GPI) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iceland | 1.11 |
| 2 | New Zealand | 1.27 |
| 3 | Ireland | 1.29 |
| 4 | Austria | 1.3 |
Iceland is the safest place to live in the world.
It ranks number one on the latest Global Peace Index, with a score of 1.107. Even better, it's held that same position for the last decade.
expected deaths = (deaths per tornado) (tornado count)+(deaths per flood) (flood count) + ... From the table, we can see the Hawaii is ranked #1 in safety, e.g. Hawaii has the lowest expected deaths per year caused by tornados, floods, wildfires, blizzards, and hurricanes.
What US state has the least natural disasters? ›WalletHub ranks Maine lowest among the states for overall impact from natural disasters. Only Alaska and Hawaii have had fewer billion-dollar disasters since 1980.
What state has the most natural disasters? ›California has had 284 federally declared disasters since 1953, making it the most natural disaster-prone U.S. state in the country. The majority of incidences in California have been due to fires, floods and earthquakes.
What 3 countries had the most natural disasters? ›
Cumulative CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion worldwide 1750-2021, by country. The United States was the biggest emitter in history as of 2021, having released 422 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide (GtCO₂) into the atmosphere since the birth of the industrial revolution.
What are three problems that scientists think will occur as a result of global warming? ›More frequent and intense drought, storms, heat waves, rising sea levels, melting glaciers and warming oceans can directly harm animals, destroy the places they live, and wreak havoc on people's livelihoods and communities. As climate change worsens, dangerous weather events are becoming more frequent or severe.
Is global warming a real thing? ›Global warming is the long-term heating of Earth's surface observed since the pre-industrial period (between 1850 and 1900) due to human activities, primarily fossil fuel burning, which increases heat-trapping greenhouse gas levels in Earth's atmosphere.
What is the best solution to climate change? ›- Keep fossil fuels in the ground. ...
- Invest in renewable energy. ...
- Switch to sustainable transport. ...
- Help us keep our homes cosy. ...
- Improve farming and encourage vegan diets. ...
- Restore nature to absorb more carbon. ...
- Protect forests like the Amazon.
- Change a light. ...
- Drive less. ...
- Recycle more. ...
- Check your tires. ...
- Use less hot water. ...
- Avoid products with a lot of packaging. ...
- Adjust your thermostat. ...
- Plant a tree.
The Earth's atmosphere is warming, faster than it probably ever has. In some cases weather patterns, climates and natural environments are changing quicker than wildlife or people can adapt. So many of the world's biggest challenges, from poverty to wildlife extinction, are made more difficult by climate change.
Can we stop climate change? ›Yes. While we cannot stop global warming overnight, we can slow the rate and limit the amount of global warming by reducing human emissions of heat-trapping gases and soot (“black carbon”).
Will we survive climate change? ›The panel found that humans would suffer and, for the most part, adapt and survive. Not so the millions of species with which we share the planet. Under likely warming scenarios, virtually all the globe's coral reefs (which feed and otherwise benefit a billion people) will be gone.
Is climate change the biggest threat to the world? ›NEW YORK (21 October 2022) – Human-induced climate change is the largest, most pervasive threat to the natural environment and societies the world has ever experienced, and the poorest countries are paying the heaviest price, a UN expert said.
What is the safest country in the world to live in 2023? ›
Which country has ranked the safest place in the world in the Global Peace Index 2023? According to the GPI, Iceland is the safest place in the world, ranking 1st with a score of 1,107.
Which countries will be unlivable in 2050? ›In 2050, scientists estimate that it will be very difficult to live in South Asia and the Persian Gulf, i.e. countries such as Iran, Kuwait and Oman.
What state will be the best to live in 2100? ›- Nuuk, Greenland. Photo by Julia Wäschenbach/picture aliiance/Getty. ...
- Egvekinot, Siberia. Photo by Spacepotato via Wikimedia/CC BY-SA 3.0. ...
- Bangor, Maine. Photo by GambitMG via Wikimedia/Public Domain. ...
- Buffalo, New York. ...
- Iqaluit, Nunavut.
Best weather: San Francisco, CA
First place goes to San Francisco, with only two days of extreme heat and a low temperature just below freezing at 27 degrees. Second place goes to San Diego, followed by Los Angeles. Both have an average yearly temperature of 60 degrees with sunny days 70% of the year.
- Extreme weather score: 73.1.
- Record high temperature: 134 F.
- Record low temperature: -45 F.
- Record rainfall in a 24-hour period: 25.8 inches.
- Record snowfall in a 24-hour period: 67 inches.
| State | Average Relative Humidity | Average Dew Point |
|---|---|---|
| Hawaii | 73.3% | 65.2 |
| Iowa | 72.4% | 39.8 |
| Michigan | 72.1% | 38.0 |
| Indiana | 72% | 43.0 |
- Michigan. The Great Lakes State takes the top spot in our index thanks in large part to its fairly low susceptibility to most of the major climate threats. ...
- Vermont. ...
- Pennsylvania. ...
- Colorado. ...
- Minnesota. ...
- Florida. ...
- Mississippi. ...
- Louisiana.
#1 Portugal. Portugal has some of the mildest weather in all of Europe with wet, temperate winters and dry, warm to hot summers, depending on location. Bordered by over 1,100 miles of Atlantic coastline the country has a mild Mediterranean climate with some variations throughout.
What states will be affected by rising sea levels? ›Other states with disproportionately high development rates in high-risk zones include Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, South Carolina, Mississippi, and Hawaii.
What cities will be affected by climate change 2050? ›| Sea Level | ||
|---|---|---|
| # | City | Potential Sea-level Rise Impact 2050 (Score) |
| 1 | Bangkok | 100.00 |
| 2 | Ho Chi Minh City | 88.67 |
| 3 | Amsterdam | 89.56 |
Is it too late to stop global warming? ›
While the effects of human activities on Earth's climate to date are irreversible on the timescale of humans alive today, every little bit of avoided future temperature increases results in less warming that would otherwise persist for essentially forever.
What is the best climate in the world according to National Geographic? ›Atenas Snapshot
With just 5,000 inhabitants (17,000 including the suburbs), Atenas is famous for having one of the best climates in the world, according to National Geographic.
Sacramento, California is the best place to live for climate change in 2022. 60% of the top 10 places to live in the U.S. for climate change are in California.
What states have the worst climate change? ›Florida, Louisiana, South Carolina and North Carolina were the worst-off states for climate-driven disasters, while the worst hit cities were nearly all in the Carolinas and Florida.
Which are the top 5 climate vulnerable states? ›In India, Punjab, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Kerala and Assam are the most vulnerable, the ranking indicates underlining that India's commercial capital, Mumbai is at high risk.
What part of US is safest from climate change? ›- Seattle, Washington. Like San Francisco, Seattle doesn't expect to see a drastic increase in days with extreme heat or high heat and humidity. ...
- Columbus, Ohio. ...
- Minneapolis, Minnesota. ...
- Baltimore, Maryland. ...
- Portland, Oregon. ...
- Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. ...
- Richmond, Virginia. ...
- Houston, Texas.
1. California. You can't beat the south and central California coast for pleasant temperatures year round. Long Beach, Los Angeles, San Diego and Santa Maria all have average daily highs no less than the mid-60s for any month of the year.
Who has the worst weather in the United States? ›Mount Washington's weather is notoriously extreme. In winter, Mount Washington experiences sub-zero temperatures, hurricane-force winds, snow and ice that essentially turn the peak into an Arctic outpost in a temperate climate zone.
Which US state is least prone to natural disasters? ›- California.
- Florida.
- Five of the least disaster-prone states:
- Maine.
- Vermont.
- New Hampshire.
- Alaska.
- Delaware.
If you stare at a map of where hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since 1851, you'll notice an enormous void over the Mid-Atlantic coast. Virginia, Maryland and Delaware have never been directly struck.
What states rarely get tornadoes? ›
Frequently asked questions. What states don't have tornadoes? Alaska, Rhode Island, and Washington, D.C. rarely see tornadoes — they averaged zero tornadoes annually over the last 25 years, according to our analysis of NOAA data.
Why don t tornadoes hit cities? ›It is a common myth that tornadoes do not strike downtown areas. The odds are much lower due to the small areas covered, but paths can go anywhere, including over downtown areas. St. Louis, Missouri has taken a direct hit four times in less than a century.
What is the USA most common natural disasters? ›Ninety percent of natural disasters within the United States involve flooding. Consequently, floods inflict more economic damage and loss of life and property than any other natural hazard.
What state is most likely to have a natural disaster? ›California has had 284 federally declared disasters since 1953, making it the most natural disaster-prone U.S. state in the country. The majority of incidences in California have been due to fires, floods and earthquakes.
What city has the most natural disasters? ›1. Los Angeles, CA. With a high population density and high frequency of earthquakes, wildfires, and flooding, LA ranks as the riskiest place for national disasters on the NRI.
Which U.S. state has the most hurricanes? ›#1 Florida
Florida, the state most vulnerable to hurricanes in the nation, has been hit by 120 hurricanes since 1851. The state of Florida is susceptible to hurricanes due to its extensive coastline and geographic location.
The most intense hurricane on record to hit the U.S. is the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935. It was a Category 5 storm that hit the Florida Keys and claimed 408 lives, most of whom were World War I veterans building roads as part of a federal relief project.
What state has the deadliest hurricanes? ›1. Florida. Of the 301 hurricanes to make landfall in the US, 120 hit Florida — meaning the Sunshine State is affected by roughly 40% of all hurricanes.
What state is best to chase tornadoes? ›Florida is undoubtedly the place to be for any aspiring storm chaser. The Sunshine State comes in first on our list with a storm chaser score of 80.23. Florida reports more days of tropical storms than any other state in the country and frequently faces other natural disasters, like hurricanes and tornadoes.
What is the best state to live in without tornadoes? ›Colorado
Ranked one of the most beautiful states in the country, Colorado has a ton of forests and mountains, mostly covered in snow during the winter months. Threats such as hurricanes, earthquakes, droughts, and tornadoes are minimal.
Is Tornado Alley shifting? ›
Tornado Alley is expanding, scientists say
The geographic location with the most frequent tornado activity tends to change year over year, Houser told ABC News. One year the Southeast may get slammed with tornadoes, while another year the activity could be concentrated further west, she added.
But during a hurricane, it can be hard to do much other than worry. It's all the more reason to try get some sleep. It will help you be more alert during the day so you can think clearly and function effectively during an emergency. Proper sleep also boosts your physical strength, energy and immune system.
Should you open windows during a tornado? ›Many people near a tornado tell of their ears "popping" due to the pressure change. damage. windows alone. It is now believed that a solid structure (no windows or doors open) has a better chance of escaping major damage.
Has a tornado ever gone through a big city? ›Though rare, tornadoes have hit big cities. In 1999, a strong tornado blew through Salt Lake City, causing one death and at least 81 injuries. In 2000, a tornado struck downtown Fort Worth, Texas, killing two people.